Intelligence – the collection, analysis and utilization of detailed information about voters. That was the real winner in the just-completed U.S. elections. While the pundits were relying on their usual tools – gut instinct, perceived momentum and political catchphrases – the polling aggregators were using extensive polling data and statistical models to make their forecasts.

Back in June, Drew Linzer, one of the best-known aggregators (votamatic.org) predicted the electoral college results: Obama 332, Romney 206. Asked for his prediction after the supposedly race-altering first presidential debate, he said no change. And the actual results after all the electoral votes were counted? Obama 332, Romney 206.

Understanding your target audience is one thing. Influencing their behavior is another. Micro-targeting is the key. Campaigns try not to waste resources influencing people unlikely to vote for their candidates. They focus on connecting with targeted segments in creative ways. Like the Obama campaign placing early-vote reminder ads in video games since having a teenager in a household predicted support for their candidate. And geographically targeting the most identified-with Hollywood celebrities to host dinners for eliciting donations from 40-49 year old females (George Clooney on the West Coast, Sarah Jessica Parker on the East Coast).

The point? How do you collect, analyze and utilize information to influence your target segments? Do you rely simply on gut instinct and conventional wisdom about your industry? Or do you take a more sophisticated, systematic approach? Are you micro-targeting? When all is said and done, are you doing the right things to win?

Your thoughts?

Michael

Last week I wrote about doing less, taking longer and using more resources. Crazy, right?

So let’s try again. Here’s what some guy named Tim had to say:

We say no to great ideas in order to keep the amount of things we focus on very small; so we can put enormous energy behind them.       Tim Cook, CEO Apple

Hmmm, I wonder what his former boss would have thought.

I‚Äôm as proud of what we don‚Äôt do as I am of what we do.        Steve Jobs

Do less, do less, do less. You can’t do it all. Trying to do it all harms it all. Do less and you’ll accomplish more.

Getting tired of this tune? OK, how about this tune:

It‚Äôs not the notes you play; it‚Äôs the notes you don‚Äôt play.         Miles Davis

Now there’s a chart-topper. Do less.

Your thoughts?

Michael

Strategy. Focus on what you can control, not on what you can’t. Right?

Not so fast. There are critical factors you can’t control that you still need to be concerned with. The STEEP factors. STEEP stands for the social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors that can kill your business just as dead as running out of cash.

Here are the types of questions you should ask:

How is the demographic shift to Millennials in the workforce (a social factor) influencing your ability to recruit and retain employees?

What opportunities does technology now provide to better connect with and gain information about your customers?

How are the ripple effects from Europe’s economic struggles likely to impact your business?

How could this year’s drought (an environmental factor) directly or indirectly affect your business?

How would it affect you if the Republicans were to win the presidency and both houses (political factors) in the upcoming U.S. elections?

You can’t control any of these factors. Yet you can – and undeniably should – anticipate them so you exploit or mitigate their effects. The goal is not to perfectly predict or control the future. The goal is to identify the most likely scenarios, think through their implications, and then take the necessary actions.

Your thoughts?

Michael

I just read in a health magazine that each of us makes at least 200 health-related decisions every day. Like taking the elevator instead of the stairs. This means we have a tremendous opportunity (73,000 opportunities per year!) to take advantage of – or not – the multiplier effect. Simply put, small things done many times can have a huge effect.

Cut out your daily bacon-double-cheeseburger for a year and expect to see the benefits. On the other hand, if you eat dessert every night for a year do you think you’ll see the costs?

Equally true with organizational leaders. Take 10 minutes to walk around and say hi to your people every day. Always arrive at least 5 minutes early for meetings. Say thank-you whenever someone follows-up to a request in a timely way. Think you’ll see benefits?

Here’s the secret: Those decisions have to be conscious decisions until they are so engrained they become sub-conscious habit. Make conscious decisions.

Do you want to see the benefits for your organization? You decide. Consciously.

Your thoughts?

Michael

You know what a value proposition is – it’s how you attract and retain customers. When it comes to strategy, your value proposition is critical … but it’s not enough. There are two other propositions you need to consider:

Your people proposition is how you attract and mobilize the right people so they can effectively deliver on your value proposition.

Your financial proposition is how you organize your business to generate a sufficient return from executing your value and people propositions.

All three are necessary. Two out of three isn’t sustainable. So when you’re thinking strategy, think three propositions.

Your thoughts?

Michael

What ultimately counts in business is how good your products, services and people are. Right?

No, that’s not what ultimately counts. What ultimately counts is how good your customers think your products, services and people are. Right?

No, that’s not what ultimately counts. What ultimately counts is how good your customers think your products, services and people are versus how good they think your competitors’ products, services and people are. Right?

Right. It’s about competitive triangulation – the triangle that connects you, your competitors and your customers. What ultimately counts is the perceived value gap between you and your competitors from the perspective of your customers.

Too many organizations approach strategy with an internal focus: What should we do better? What better things should we do? Some go further and include the voice of the customer: What does the customer want and need? How does the customer view us? The most successful organizations approach strategy from a competitive context: How much value does the customer think we provide compared to our competitors? How are the customer’s value drivers changing?

You can be very good and still lose business if you’re not thinking competitively. Strategy is about competing. So compete.

Your thoughts?

Michael

You know that to survive in business you have to watch your cash. Many companies die not because of the P&L but because of cash flow. But this mindset can be a double-edge sword. It can lead to an overly conservative view towards investment. And insufficient investment means limited growth.

Keith McFarland, author of The Breakthrough Company, (think “Good to Great” but for mid-sized companies) researched fast-growing companies to identify which ones ultimately produced superior, long-term financial results and why. A key conclusion was that breakthrough companies are those that place increasingly larger bets, with the skill to place the right bets. An example of a big bet: Tony Hsieh of Zappos moving the entire company from San Francisco to Las Vegas to find the right employees at the right cost to staff their call center – a critical component of the Zappos business model.

How do you place the right bets? A combination of information and intuition. Utilize information but don’t ignore the insights that underlie your intuitions. Value your intuitions but don’t disregard the richness of information. Embrace the dynamic tension that results when considering both information and intuition – the two “I’s.”

So, yes, watch the cash. But be prepared to roll the dice.

Your thoughts?

Michael

You’ve got a better idea? Great. How long before someone copies it? Or leapfrogs it? Or confuses the market into thinking that they can do what you can do? Better isn’t forever.

Consider a company I used to work for: FedEx. FedEx was founded in 1973 with a better idea – overnight delivery. Yet realizing that overnight delivery would soon be copied, they identified the next level of value: absolutely, positively overnight. In other words, while competitors might claim to deliver overnight, only FedEx could reliably deliver.

Still, it was inevitable that others would figure things out and close the reliability gap. So FedEx extended the value equation to real-time tracking. They knew that customers would value the peace-of-mind that comes from knowing the location of their package at any time.

And so it continued with additional value elements like customs clearance, deferred service and logistics. By sequencing together new sources of value, FedEx survived start-up, kept ahead of their competitors and became the fastest company at the time to reach $1B in annual revenues.

FedEx is more than overnight delivery. Google is more than search. Amazon is more than online retail. Being a one-hit-wonder might get you the spotlight … today. But if you want to grow, really grow, become a hit-making-machine.

Your thoughts?

Michael

Working on my second mojito as we watch the surfers catch the late afternoon waves off the Southern California coast gets me thinking about why we like beach bars.

Sure, there are the views, the music, the people, the drinks, the staff, the décor, the this, the that …

But what we really like about beach bars is how they make us feel. Carefree, relaxed, comfortable, warm, content, good. The more those other things – the views, the music – help create the feelings we like, the more we like the beach bar. The more we like being at the beach bar.

It’s the experience. It’s all about the experience.

How do you want your customers to feel when they use your products and services and when they engage your people? What do you want them to experience?

Think I’ll experience another mojito.

Your thoughts?

Michael

You act quickly. So are you decisive, or just impatient? You act deliberately. Are you patient, or just indecisive?

Is it that you empower your people or abandon them? Do you give them clear and detailed direction or do you micromanage?

The same management principles can be interpreted in different ways. And they can be correctly applied, misapplied, over-applied or under-applied. So how can you be sure that you’re always applying the right principles to the right extent?

You can’t. The reality of management is that you’re constantly trying to determine the right course of action in a dynamic environment. So what principles can help you select and apply the right principles?

1)     Walking a fine line. Sometimes it‚Äôs a matter of walking a fine line when applying a principle. You want to be patient, but not too patient. Decisive, yet not impulsive. You want to be consistent, but not inflexible. Flexible, yet not inconsistent.

2)     Finding the right balance. Sometimes it‚Äôs finding the right balance in applying opposing principles. You want to be task-oriented but also people-oriented. Process-oriented and results-oriented. You want to rely on information but also intuition.

3)     Understanding the situation. And sometimes it‚Äôs knowing which principle to apply when. There are times for autocratic decision-making and times for democratic decision-making. Times for rules, times for guidelines. Times for reason, times for emotion.

You can’t know all the answers in a complex, ever-changing environment (and don’t pretend to know). That’s why it’s important to wrestle with the choices. The art of leadership is managing the dynamic tension you face with these choices.

Manage the dynamic tension. Start now. Because as we all know, he who hesitates is lost. But then again, haste makes waste.

Your thoughts?

Michael